President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming second administration has sparked controversy, largely due to his Cabinet appointments. His selections have raised concerns about qualifications and suitability for key positions. For instance, Trump’s nomination of Pete Hegseth as the United States (US) Defense Secretary has drawn criticism due to his lack of sufficient and relevant experience for the role, given his background as a Fox News host. Similarly, Trump nominated television presenter Dr. Mehmet Oz to lead the country’s Medicare and Medicaid programs. He also selected Linda McMahon, former chief executive of World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE), to serve as the US Secretary of Education. Notably, Elon Musk, who has been a pivotal voice throughout Trump’s re-election campaign, will be leading the newly created presidential advisory commission, dubbed the ‘Department of Government Efficiency,’ alongside Vivek Ramaswamy. More recently, Musk has been interfering in foreign policy issues and has made controversial statements about the country’s long-standing allies, including Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Despite the differences within Trump’s Cabinet picks on policy positions, what seems to be a common thread amongst them is their strong sense of loyalty to him, rather than their competence or expertise. In terms of foreign policy, the make-up of his incoming team will largely influence and shape the positions of a ‘Trump 2.0’ White House, particularly as it relates to Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, and China.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

It has been widely speculated what a second Trump term could mean for the ongoing Israel-Gaza war. During his re-election campaign, Trump vowed to end the war, offering a sense of hope for Arab and Muslim voters. Nevertheless, his Cabinet picks show a much more hardline position in support of Israel. For example, Trump appointed his close golf partner and former real estate investor, Steven Witkoff, as Special Envoy to the Middle East. Witkoff is tasked with reaching an agreement on a hostage exchange and ceasefire in Gaza, while appearing to be working on a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, a plan started under the Biden administration that collapsed after October 7, 2023. Despite not holding any official role prior to Trump’s inauguration, Witkoff has already visited the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Israel, signaling the significance of his role. Witkoff has held pro-Israeli stances in the past, bringing into question how his personal views and biases will influence his approach to the wider Israel-Palestine file. Another official who will impact the dynamics of the ongoing war is Mike Huckabee, the former Governor of Arkansas, who has been nominated as the incoming Ambassador to Israel. Huckabee once infamously stated that “there’s really no such thing as a Palestinian.” After his nomination, Huckabee criticized the Biden administration, accusing it of exerting “more pressure on Israel than Hamas,” insinuating that his approach would be markedly different, despite Biden’s ongoing support of Israel. Trump has also nominated Marco Rubio to be Secretary of State, who is known for being a strong supporter of Israel and has encouraged increasing aid, both economic and military, to Tel Aviv. Furthermore, Elise Stefanik has been nominated as Permanent Representative to the UN, although she has previously accused the international body of “antisemitism,” drawing doubts that any substantial changes can occur at the Security Council in regards to the US’ position. Personally, Trump has had strong relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who previously expressed that Trump is “the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House.” Consequently, Palestinian voices will struggle to be represented in discussions around a potential agreement, especially in regard to Palestinian statehood and self-determination.

Despite months of stalled negotiations, there is currently no ceasefire or hostage exchange deal for the Israel-Gaza war. The acceleration of diplomatic efforts in recent weeks with the participation of both Biden and Trump officials shows the priority these critical issues will have for the incoming Cabinet. For the US and Israel, securing the release and safety of the hostages is seen as a critical starting point for any broader peace process. Trump in particular has vowed that there will be “hell to pay” if the hostages are not released before his January 20 inauguration. Following an eventual ceasefire, we can expect Trump to announce a new ‘grand bargain’ that includes his own version of a peace process for the wider Israel-Palestine file, although the details of it are yet to be determined. Additionally, the reconstruction and future governance of Gaza will be a key challenge on the Cabinet team’s desks. During his last presidency, Trump cut off funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), charged with providing aid and services to Palestinian refugees, which raises questions about the extent to which Trump will be committed to providing for the humanitarian and reconstruction needs in Gaza. While Biden had resumed funding for the agency in 2021, despite temporarily suspending it again following the October 7 attacks, it is probable that Trump’s new administration will defund UNRWA once again. Instead, Trump may tap into the support of Gulf countries for Gaza’s reconstruction process, rather than go through UN channels.

Furthermore, it is unclear what Trump’s position vis-à-vis the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) will be. As a necessary counterpart in potential long-term peace negotiations, the PLO will have to be involved in some capacity. In Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ phone call to congratulate Trump for his re-election, the President-elect expressed that “he will work to stop the ongoing war in Gaza,” indicating that both leaders may be willing to engage pragmatically in the coming phase. All in all, Trump’s proposed Cabinet lacks moderate voices on Israel-Palestine, which will undermine any long-term agreement that can truly reflect the rights and ambitions of Palestinians, and usher in a sustainable peace process.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

Throughout his re-election campaign, Trump pledged to bring the Russia-Ukraine war to an end “within 24 hours” of him taking office. He nominated the retired Lieutenant General, Keith Kellogg, as the person responsible for facilitating this process through his new role as the Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg has stated that Ukrainians must engage in negotiations to find common ground with the Russians, warning that if they fail to do so, “support from the United States will dry up.” However, he also said last June that Russian President Vladimir Putin must engage in such peace negotiations. Moreover, the President-elect selected Tulsi Gabbard as the Director of National Intelligence, who has previously expressed positions which have categorized her as being pro-Russia. For instance, she stated that the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) were to blame for initiating the Russia-Ukraine war as they dismissed “Russia’s security concerns.” Trump has also held longstanding criticisms of NATO, believing that the alliance’s military spending is inefficient and that many member countries fail to meet their financial commitments. Trump previously told the group’s members: “You didn’t pay, you’re delinquent […] No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage [the Russians] to do whatever the hell they want.” This harsh rhetoric suggests that Trump is willing to strain relations even with his country’s closest European allies. Given Trump’s approach and his Cabinet picks’ positions on the war in Ukraine, we can expect reduced security guarantees by the US to European nations, despite its founding role in NATO.

The next four years could severely damage the transatlantic alliance, which has been built on shared security, political, and economic ties between the US and Europe. Trump’s comments on NATO also suggest a growing dissatisfaction with the organization itself, which may result in increased discourse about the US potentially withdrawing from the alliance. Given Trump’s preference for direct diplomacy and his unwillingness to go through NATO channels, we can expect more direct engagement between the President-elect and Putin to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump’s ‘America first’ position and his commitment to stop funding foreign wars suggests that it is unlikely that US military assistance for Ukraine will increase under his administration, opposing the Biden administration’s approach to the war. Instead, any future aid will be conditional, with Trump aiming to bring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the negotiation table in exchange for US support. Moreover, Trump may propose a new peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine file, pressuring Ukraine to give up parts of its Russia-occupied territory.

CHINA

One of the most critical foreign policy files that will be significantly impacted by the new Trump Cabinet is the relationship between the US and China. Trump has consistently criticized China’s growing global influence. He announced that starting on his first day in office, he would impose additional tariffs on China, alongside Mexico and Canada, citing his belief that these countries represent a threat to US national security. Many of his Cabinet picks share his hardline stance. This includes Marco Rubio, who has stated that “the gravest threat facing America today, […] the threat that will define this century is China.” Similarly, David Perdue, the incoming Ambassador to China, has previously expressed that his country “must have a long-term plan to compete and deal with China’s rising economic and geopolitical influence.” This aligns with Trump’s objective of protecting US interests, showcased in his statement of threatening to tax China “at 150% to 200%” if they were to invade Taiwan. Additionally, Rubio has been a strong advocate of strengthening relations between the US and Taiwan through increased aid and support, which will likely exacerbate tensions with China if he makes this a priority during his tenure. Sharing similar views is Mike Waltz, the incoming National Security Advisor, who stated that protecting and defending Taiwan from China must be a key US policy objective, as this could affect other regional alliances with Japan and South Korea. That said, analysts have voiced concerns over how Trump’s isolationist policies will impact the US’ support during his term. Notably, the President-elect has stated in the past that he would not defend Taiwan if China were to invade the island, and suggested that Taiwan should provide financial compensation to the US in exchange for its support.

Although his Cabinet picks have expressed dissimilar views and ideas on the defense of Taiwan, Trump is likely to prefer to withhold any direct US involvement in the tensions between China and Taiwan. Just as he has expressed his dissatisfaction with sending more aid to Ukraine, he may adopt a similar approach towards Taiwan by cutting or reducing military and economic support to avoid becoming involved in another entanglement, and to focus inwards on the US economy.

Trump’s policies of protectionism and isolationism, displayed through his ‘America first’ agenda, will be the primary lens through which the US will act towards China in the next four years. Considering his previous presidency’s engagement in a US-China trade war and his criticism of Biden’s “pro-China stance,” Trump may go further and once again involve the country in an even more intense trade war. Notably, China has positioned itself as a leader of the Global South, specifically within the BRICS bloc. However, the President-elect holds a negative view of BRICS, especially of their aim of moving away from a Western-led world order. In fact, Trump has even threatened the grouping by saying that he will impose “100% tariffs” on all BRICS members if they attempt “to replace the US dollar with another currency.” Trump’s threat could prompt hesitation amongst other nations who were seeking membership in the organization, while also intensifying tensions specifically with China. It is probable that Trump would impose additional tariffs in an attempt to damage Chinese sectors and maintain the US as the world’s leading economy. Despite this, Chinese President Xi Jinping has congratulated Trump on his re-election, laying the groundwork for future direct engagement between Beijing and Washington. With the intensifying competition between the US and China, the future of global leadership remains unclear. Similarly, the final composition of Trump’s Cabinet is yet to be confirmed as Senate hearings are set to begin next week. Although not all of Trump’s nominees may be approved, his picks are still an indication of the direction that a second Trump White House will take in the next four years.

The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author, and do not represent Fiker Institute.

Trump 2.0: Cabinet Picks & Foreign Policy Positions