U.S.-Mexico Border Crisis
What Is Happening
In the past two decades, immigration has become a highly contentious issue in the United States, compounded by the periodic influx of migrants mainly from Mexico and Central America to the country’s southern border. In 2014, after a surge of unaccompanied minors and women at the border from the Northern Triangle of Central America (Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador), the U.S. declared the matter a crisis.1 Then, in 2019, a major wave of migration resulted in 851,508 migrant encounters at the border,2 intensifying the national debate on immigration. However, despite the implementation of a range of policies to curb irregular crossings, enacted by President Donald Trump and by President Joe Biden respectively, the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border persists. In fact, in 2021, the U.S. Border Patrol reported more than 1.6 million encounters with migrants, the highest annual total on record.3
The two latest presidential administrations have addressed the increase in the number of migrant encounters vastly differently. Both during his presidential campaign and during his presidency, President Trump made border security and immigration enforcement the center of his political message, appealing to anti-immigration sentiment within the U.S. populace.4 Days after coming to office, he issued an executive order to provide the resources to build a wall along the U.S. – Mexico border, which had been a central promise of his campaign.5 Maintaining that potential terrorists, gang members, and illegal drugs carriers can enter the U.S. as undocumented immigrants, he framed border control as a matter of national security,6 thus justifying up to $18 billion in funding that the Trump administration deemed was necessary to prevent irregular crossings.7
The border wall was highly divisive in the U.S. legislature. Although President Trump had maintained during his campaign that Mexico would pay for its construction, through an increase in trade tariffs if needed,8 Mexico was clear on its refusal to shoulder the payment,9 leading the Trump administration to seek federal funding. Democratic lawmakers and the Trump administration battled in Congress over the appropriation of the sums required for the construction of the wall.10 Between December 2018 and January 2019, this impasse led to a partial shutdown of the U.S. government for 35 days—the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.11 A quarter of the government was left without funds as President Trump maintained that he would veto any appropriations bill that did not provide complete funding for the border wall.12 In order to prevent another government shutdown, the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives and the Republican-controlled Senate negotiated a bipartisan spending measure in February 2019, which did not finance the wall.13 Hours after the bill passed, however, President Trump declared a national emergency on the border with Mexico, which allowed him to bypass Congress and access the funds required for the construction of the wall.14
The Trump administration justified the need for unilateral action by arguing that irregular crossings constituted a threat to national security.15 Although the move triggered dozens of legal challenges, the Supreme Court allowed the construction of the wall to go forward pending litigation, using diverted federal funds.16 In 2020, the national emergency was extended.17 Overall, his administration was able to redirect close to $10 billion from the Department of Defense to the construction of the wall along the U.S. – Mexico border.18 Until the end of the Trump presidency, 80 miles of new barriers were built, some of it as reinforcement to existing barriers, and 452 miles of the barriers built by previous administrations were replaced, which, in total, correspond to the closure of around one-quarter of the 2000-mile border between both countries.19
In his four years in office, President Trump also enacted various other policies to curb migration. In April 2018, his administration announced a blanket “zero tolerance” policy for illegal immigration, by which the Department of Justice sought to prosecute all adults who crossed the U.S-Mexico border at any point other than official ports of entry, including asylum seekers.20 This created a humanitarian crisis, as children were forced to be kept apart from parents who now faced criminal prosecution under U.S. law. Many families were forcefully separated as a result, and thousands of children were scattered across the country in shelters operated by the government.21 The family separation policy faced much deserved criticism, both by Democrats and by Republicans. This led President Trump to sign an executive order to halt the separation policy, and to instead detain migrant families together while they awaited court dates in criminal and immigration courts.22
However, it was later revealed that despite the official termination of the policy, many more families had been separated at the border, even those who had entered through designated ports of entries, under a previously undisclosed pilot program in El Peso, Texas, between June and November 2017.23 Following a court order, the Trump administration disclosed that the total number of children separated from their parents at the borders was close to 5500.24 The separation policy had severe consequences that persisted for years after. In addition to reports of post-traumatic stress disorder amongst the affected groups of children, hundreds of which were below the age of 5, it was reported that parents of close to 600 children were never located after they had been separated.25
Moreover, in 2019, the Trump administration implemented the Migration Protection Protocols (MPP), also known as the Remain in Mexico policy.26 Under the MPP, migrants and asylum seekers were required to stay in Mexico while the U.S. immigration courts, backlogged with cases, processed their claims. During the time the policy was ongoing, 70,000 people were made to wait outside of the U.S.27 This led to another humanitarian crisis, this time on the south of the border. Although the Mexican government offered them visas and work permits while they waited, many migrants lived in squalid conditions in makeshift shelters, where they faced robberies, kidnappings, and assaults.28 The migrants waiting for their claims to be processed were especially vulnerable to smuggling rings, whose illegal earnings are estimated to reach around billions of dollars.29
Lastly, with the start of the pandemic, the Trump administration began expelling migrants and asylum seekers encountered at the border under a public health order published by the Center for Disease Control (CDC), which aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19.30 Under Title 42, over 80% of monthly migrant encounters resulted in expulsion,31 meaning that migrants were either sent back to their countries or their last country of transit. This also led to a significant increase in “repeat crossings,”32 that is, migrants who were expelled attempted to reenter through irregular means multiple times. Before that, recidivism rates had been relatively low, but they rose to around 30% in the months after Title 42’s implementation,33 causing an overall increase in the number of migrant encounters.
President Biden’s approach to immigration policies diverged significantly from that of President Trump’s, although he preserved certain policies of his predecessor. When President Biden took office in January 2021, he rolled back a number of President Trump’s immigration policies. Firstly, he halted the construction of the wall along the border, and ended the national emergency declared in 2019.34 A month later, in February 2021, he terminated the Asylum Cooperative Agreements with El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, which had mandated that asylum seekers from the Northern Triangle seek refuge in the country they are traveling through, instead of the United States.35 Although the policies had never been implemented with El Salvador and Honduras,36 the Biden administration’s termination of it signaled its resolve to dismantle the era of hardline immigration policies. In the same month, the administration restarted the Central American Minors program, suspended under President Trump, which reunites qualified children from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras with their parent(s) who are lawfully present in the U.S.37 Shortly after, President Biden raised the annual U.S. refugee cap to 62,500 entrants, which had been cut by the Trump administration to 15,000 entrants, the lowest number since the 1980 Refugee Act took effect.38
However, President Biden’s attempts to reform the immigration system coincided with a massive surge of migrants at the border.39 In the fiscal year of 2021, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the federal agency that encompasses Border Patrol, reported 1,659,206 encounters with migrants at the border, the highest number of annual encounters on record.40 Mexico constituted the most common origin country with 608,037 people, accounting for 37% of the encounters.41 The remaining 1,051,169 encounters were from other countries, the highest total for non-Mexican nations in CBP records since 2000.42 Further, the Northern Triangle was a major source of migration at the US-Mexico border in 2021. 19% of all encounters were from Honduras, while 17% were from Guatemala.43
Although President Biden moved to undo several hardline immigration policies, his administration took unexpected positions that further fueled anti-immigration sentiments throughout the country. In March 2021, President Biden openly called on migrants not to come to the U.S., saying: “Do not come over. We are in the process of getting set up. Don’t leave your town or community.”44 Then, a few months later, the Biden administration announced that it will indefinitely extend Title 42 in order to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in holding facilities. Between April 2020 and March 2022 (the most recent month for which data is available), nearly 2.9 million encounters with migrants were recorded at the U.S.-Mexico border.45 Close to 1.8 million of those encounters, or 61%, resulted in expulsions.46 In March 2022 alone, 51% of all migrant encounters at the southwest border resulted in expulsions.47
In addition, the Biden administration has been reluctant to allow media access to detention facilities along the border, especially amidst the surge of unaccompanied child migrants. Last year, photographs released by Texas Democratic representative Henry Cuellar showed children sleeping on mats with foil blankets.48 Citing COVID-19 concerns, however, President Biden maintained that migrant processing facilities would not be open to the media, and that he was unsure when that access could be provided.49 Furthermore, journalists have not been allowed to accompany Border Patrol agents in surveillance trips, leading some to label the Biden administration’s opaque attitude as a “zero access” policy for journalists.50
Why Is It Happening?
The causes for the persistence of the immigration crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border is twofold. On one hand, economic hardships and political disenfranchisement in Latin America encourage migration northwards. On the other hand, Congress has not been able to reach a bipartisan agreement on comprehensive immigration reform for years, effectively relegating policy decisions to the executive and judicial branches of the government.
Concerns over public safety and law and order in Central America lead to an influx of migrants attempting to cross the border into the United States. Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, for example, are among the most dangerous places in the world to live.51 The two also have Latin America’s highest rates of femicide, that is, gender-based murders of women and girls over the age of fifteen.52 Furthermore, the region is plagued by gang violence. As criminal groups battle for territory, thousands of people are displaced and forced to flee their homes for fear of persecution. In the Michoacán state of Mexico alone, for instance, it is estimated that 20,000 people have fled violence in 2021.53 Decades of civil conflict and political instability in the region allowed the emergence of a complex criminal ecosystem,54 encouraging many to seek safety northwards.
In addition, many economies in Latin America face severe hardships, which have been exacerbated by the pandemic. The Northern Triangle especially is among the poorest in the Western Hemisphere.55 In 2019, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala ranked near the bottom for gross domestic product per capita among all Latin American and Caribbean states.56 Inequality and poverty rose further during the pandemic. Many households in the region depend on remittances, that is, money sent home by relatives or friends working abroad, which accounted for nearly 21% of Northern Triangle countries’ economic output in 2020.57 The region has also been plagued by natural disasters in recent years, weakening its economy further. In the fall of 2021, multiple hurricanes struck Central America, which destroyed subsistence farms, killed livestock, and devastated large-scale agricultural production.58 Accordingly, in a 2021 study, 92% individuals surveyed from the Northern Triangle who expressed a desire to migrate internationally cited economic reasons such as unemployment, the lack of social protections, the desire to send remittances, and the need for better working conditions.59
While these factors lead to influxes of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border, the U.S.’s inadequate immigration policies are the primary reason behind enabling the situation to turn into an actual crisis. For decades, Congress has not been able to pass comprehensive immigration reform, which refers to omnibus legislation that addresses the following issues: the demand for high and low-skilled labor, the legal status of the undocumented immigrants living in the country, border security, and interior enforcement.60 The last comprehensive legislation to pass through Congress was under President Ronald Reagan in 1986, giving legal amnesty to three million undocumented residents.61 Since the turn of the century, however, political polarization around immigration stood in the way of effective policymaking. In 2007, for example, President George W. Bush and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi worked together on a comprehensive immigration bill.62 The bill, which proposed a compromise between providing a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and increasing border enforcement, was introduced in the Senate, but never voted on.63 Then, in 2013, President Barack Obama proposed a bill that would increase border security, institute a points-based immigration system, and make it possible for undocumented migrants to gain legal status.64 However, the bill failed to pass through Congress and become law.65 Likewise, both the Trump and the Biden administrations proposed comprehensive reforms, neither of which was implemented.66
The persistent failure of immigration reform bills in Congress over the past two decades is a consequence of the increasing political polarization around immigration. In 2005, for example, Republican and Democratic voters were only five percentage points apart in their favorability towards immigrants.67 By 2018, the divide between the two parties’ attitudes towards immigrants deepened significantly: While 8 in 10 Democrats said that immigrants strengthen the country, only 4 in 10 Republicans shared the sentiment.68 With the Senate and the House of Representatives often controlled by different parties, attitudes have clashed in an increasingly polarized political landscape. Partisanship on the matter has prevented comprehensive bills from being enacted, which leaves the immigration system to be governed largely by executive orders, considered by certain critics to be unconstitutional. As such, the U.S. immigration policies have largely depended on each administration’s ideological leanings, while preserving a general logic of disincentivizing migration to the country.
What Is Being Done About It?
The Biden administration has been tackling the migration crisis at the country’s southern border both on regional and domestic fronts. Firstly, in line with his regional diplomacy-focused approach, President Biden has implemented a “big picture” plan to address the root causes of northward migration from Latin America, specifically from the Northern Triangle.69 His approach depends on a long-term plan framed around a simple cause-and-effect relationship: Make life better in Latin America, and people will not want to migrate to the United States.
Accordingly, in February 2021, President Biden signed an executive order that called for the development of a Root Causes Strategy.70 As part of this strategy, he dedicated $4 billion to put development, security, and anti-corruption efforts back on track in the region. The aid plan is directed to civil society organizations, “reform-minded” public institutions, and vulnerable communities in order to reduce poverty, curb violence, and build climate resilience.71 He also conditioned government-to-government aid on tackling corruption.72 Further, in order to carry out the $4 billion plan, the administration named Ricardo Zuniga as the Special Envoy for the Northern Triangle in March 2022, who is mandated to work with regional governments and other partners to curb unauthorized migration.73
More recently, in June 2022, President Biden spearheaded a Western hemisphere-wide migration agreement at the Summit of the Americas, which brought together heads of state from regional governments.74 On the final day of the Summit, the United States and 19 other countries, including Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Canada, signed the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection. During the negotiations, President Biden framed northward migration in the Americas as a region wide issue, and emphasized that the U.S. alone should not shoulder the burden of historically high rates of migration in the region.75
As part of the Los Angeles Declaration, the U.S. announced that the country will take in 20,000 refugees from Latin America over the next two years, and increase the number of season worker visas from Central America.76 For their part, other heads of states in the region committed to receiving migrants before they reach the United States. For instance, Mexico said the country would accept up to 20,000 more temporary workers, as well as starting a new employment program for 20,000 people from Guatemala.77 Canada pledged to accept 4,000 refugees from the Americas by 2028, and Colombia said it would endeavor to address the surge of refugees fleeing political instability in Venezuela.78 These pledges, however, do not match the breadth and depth of the issue itself. The numbers of migrants that the Summit’s heads of state have committed to receiving are extremely marginal compared to the millions who attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border every year.
Domestically, the Biden administration has been seeking to reform the U.S. immigration system as well. In February 2021, the White House sent an immigration bill to Congress, named the U.S. Citizenship Act of 2021, to expand border surveillance, increase oversight of border authorities, and create new standards for CBP’s treatment of migrants.79 The proposed bill would allow more immigrants into the U.S., while giving an estimated 10.5 million unauthorized migrants who are already in the country an 8-year pathway to legal status.80 The bill also proposed to expand visa and green card availability, broaden asylum eligibility, and boost border security spending.81
However, the Biden administration’s comprehensive domestic plan has faced partisan resistance in Congress. As a result, Congressional Democrats indicated that they are unlikely to consider the bill in its entirety immediately, instead focusing on advancing piecemeal legislation that can gather bipartisan support.82 Comprising portions of the Citizenship Act, the American Dream and Promise Act was introduced in the House of Representatives in March 2021, and passed the House weeks later.83 The act incorporates the provisions of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program into federal law, which allows some undocumented individuals who have been brought to the U.S. as children to receive deferred action from deportation and become eligible for employment authorization.84 Also in March 2021, the Farm Workforce Modernization Act was introduced as another piecemeal form of the comprehensive Citizenship Act.85 The legislation, which proposed to amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to provide undocumented farmworkers and their family members with a path to legal immigration status, likewise passed through the House of Representatives.86
Despite these victories in the House, however, even comparatively modest legislation like the Farm Workforce Modernization Act got stuck in the Senate.87 Further, In May 2022, Senator Bob Menendez, a key sponsor of the President’s U.S. Citizenship Act, said that the bill has “zero” chance of succeeding this year as legislators struggle to find an immigration reform agenda that can pass through the Senate, which is evenly divided between the Democrats and the Republicans.88 In order to pass, the measures need to be capable of garnering 60 votes, at least 10 of which need to be Republican votes.89 In addition, the U.S. Senate elections will be held in November 2022,90 meaning that if a Republican majority Senate emerged out of the elections, President Biden’s immigration reform would be stalled even further.
What’s Next?
In the second half of 2022, a major surge of migrants is expected at the U.S.- Mexico border.91 As the pandemic landscape evolves, Title 42, which the Biden administration has utilized to manage border crossings since coming to office, has been facing increasing political pressure from the Democrats, as well as judicial scrutiny.92 As such, in April 2022, the CDC announced that the Biden administration will end on May 23, 2022 the public health order that effectively blocked a significant majority of migrants from entering the United States.93 The termination of Title 42 is projected to lead to a major increase in border crossings. The Department of Homeland Security has estimated that up to 18,000 people will try to cross the border daily, as opposed to the 7,000 average crossings in the past year, which will overwhelm the already full border facilities.94 The Department set up the Southwest Border Coordination Center at its headquarters to coordinate across multiple agencies in receiving potentially around 170,000 people coming to the southern border, and around 25,000 migrants already in shelters in Mexico.95
Following Title 42’s termination, the Biden administration announced several initiatives to address the expected surge of migrants at the border. Most notably, the administration will release federal regulation that overhauls the U.S. asylum system to settle claims at a faster pace and to help alleviate the immigration court backlog.96 Under the new rule, asylum officers are given more authority by allowing them to hear and decide asylum claims (which are usually assigned to immigration judges) when migrants arrive at the borders.97 The results of the Senate election in November will show whether President Biden will be successful in passing through Congress the first comprehensive immigration reform bill to become law in decades. Combined with Title 42 having ended weeks ago, the recent signing of the Los Angeles Declaration and many proposed policies waiting to be implemented, the immigration landscape in the United States is set to experience significant developments in the months to come.
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