The 2025 German Elections: Party Politics & International Implications
After the fall of the traffic-light coalition in November 2024 and Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s failure to win a vote-of-confidence the following month, Germany’s government has a fresh opportunity to re-constitute itself in the upcoming snap elections on February 23, 2025. Scholz’s cabinet was deeply fragmented by internal disagreements, particularly over budget proposals. Havoc erupted after a paper was leaked outlining then-Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s proposal for a controversial economic program leading to his dismissal and his party, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), exiting the ruling coalition. The coalition faced accusations of irresponsibility, leading to a sharp decrease in popularity and a loss of confidence from the German parliament, also known as the Bundestag, in mid-December 2024, triggering a snap election. Since then, political campaigns have surged across the country, promising to restrengthen Germany’s domestic and foreign policy positions. German citizens will soon cast two votes on a single ballot: one to elect their district’s representative and the other for their favored state political party. The winners of the election will take up seats at the Bundestag, and will elect the country’s next Chancellor.
GERMAN PARTY POLITICS
There is no doubt of the left’s deterioration in Germany with the fall of the coalition between the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the FDP, and the unpopularity of the Left Party and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). Despite Scholz’s failure in government, he has been re-elected by the SPD as their candidate for Chancellor in the snap elections. With a focus on “ordinary people,” the SPD’s Scholz is building on his previous promises to increase the minimum wage from approximately €12.8 to €15, as well as reduce taxes for low-income households, while increasing taxation for the wealthy. The Greens are also running on their previous policy priorities, including pro-climate policies and increasing taxes on billionaires. Meanwhile, the FDP has advocated for improving German education, supporting private investment, and centralizing the federation. The Left Party has called for egalitarian policies like increasing minimum wage and raising taxes for the rich. Finally, the BSW, the “left-wing conservative” party, has endorsed the increase of wages and benefits, along with stricter migration and defense policies.
In a sharp deviation from the ruling leftist coalition, the joint parliamentary group of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CDU/CSU), the frontrunners in the election, have made brazen promises to reduce welfare benefits, lower taxes, implement stricter migration policies, and increase defense spending. Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU/CSU, who was previously ousted from CDU leadership by former Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2002, has a business-focused outlook that aims to rebuild a country that Germans can be “proud of.”
In terms of possible coalition formations, it is not clear which party the CDU/CSU would form a coalition with if it wins. Merz accused the traffic-light coalition of bringing about Germany’s economic downfall. While it would be ideal for Merz to work with the FDP due to their ideological alignment, this may not be feasible considering their low popularity. As of early February 2025, mere weeks ahead of the election, it is questionable whether the FDP can attain the Bundestag’s minimum threshold of 5% in the polls to enter parliament, requiring a third party to join their coalition. A three-way coalition is not ideal considering the need to account for more policy perspectives and complicating the political process, as shown by the challenges the previous coalition faced. If Merz is successful in talks with the SPD, he may form a so-called ‘Grand Coalition’; however, this would require major compromises from both sides considering the ongoing hostility between the two parties. It is clear that Merz will continue to prioritize the country’s adoption of stricter immigration and asylum policies, something that needs to be negotiated if he forms a coalition with the left.
THE FAR-RIGHT & MIGRATION POLICY
On the other hand, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a key party to look out for in this election, with recent polls showing the party coming second behind the CDU/ CSU. The far-right AfD’s rise has deeply shaken the German political scene, sparking major protests with thousands in attendance across Germany. Led by Alice Weidel, the AfD has made bold statements calling for Germany to leave the European Union (EU), referring to it as “Dexit,” and to stop the use of the Euro as a currency.
Since 1945, when the Nazis were defeated, political parties have traditionally held a ‘firewall’ or Brandmauer, an informal agreement of non-cooperation with the far-right, like the AfD. As such, Merz has pledged not to join forces with the AfD, a long held CDU/CSU position, indicating that the party is unlikely to be part of a Merz ruling coalition if he wins. Nevertheless, Merz recently accepted support from the AfD for his motion on a migration plan. This is due to the CDU/CSU’s inability to get a majority with only the FDP’s support. The non-binding motion in the Bundestag called for permanent border controls, the rejection of illegal immigration regardless of asylum status, and the detention of people to be deported. The motion was brought to a vote after the recent violent attacks in Aschaffenburg, Mannheim, Solingen, and Magdeburg by foreign-born suspects. The proposed border restrictions, however, would be a direct violation of the Schengen agreement that provides open borders for “anyone legally present in the EU” and the Schengen zone. While the AfD’s Weidel celebrated the fall of the firewall, Merz received major backlash, including from his party’s former leader Angela Merkel after years of silence, and the left-wing with Scholz labeling Merz’s action an “unforgivable mistake.” As a result, Merz expressed regret for his action of accepting AfD support and clarified that he does not intend to work with the AfD as it aims to “destroy” the CDU. He emphasized that there would be “no cooperation, there is no tolerance, there is no minority government” with the far-right party.
Furthermore, on the back of the non-binding motion, Merz raised a migration reform bill called the “Influx Limitation Law” to the Bundestag, which was eventually rejected. The AfD’s Weidel described this as Merz’s “dismantling.” However, it did heat up the elections and was a blow to Merz, leading to a 3 point decline in his approval ratings and the CDU/CSU’s fall by 2 points in the polls. Notably on the matter, a DeutschlandTrend survey was conducted in January 2025, which stated that approximately “two out of three” Germans think the nation should take in fewer refugees. Nevertheless, major protests erupted with at least 160,000 people in attendance against the CDU and AfD attempt to pass the anti-immigration bill.
Nevertheless, there is a high chance that the AfD will have a significant presence in the Bundestag’s opposition. This could increase its chances of making significant wins in the next elections. Indeed, Weidel has predicted that German politics in 2029 will see a major shift with the AfD and a right-wing ruling coalition in power. This is especially relevant on account of Elon Musk’s explicit support of the AfD. Musk, the leader of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency and the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, stated in December 2024 that “only the AfD can save Germany.” He also promoted Weidel as the next German Chancellor in a recent live broadcast he held with her on X. Additionally, he virtually attended the AfD’s campaign party where he stated that “there is too much focus on past guilt, and we need to move beyond that,” referring to the nation’s history.
Regardless of the election outcomes, Germany’s socio-political sphere has already been majorly affected by the rise of the far-right, a phenomenon that is set to grow in the coming years. Recent developments like the Magdeburg car attack act as a notable example. Despite the fact that the attacker is alleged to be a right-wing radical, there has been a significant rise of white supremacy, as well as racist and violent acts by right-wing supporters towards migrants in Germany. German security and its perceived links to migration is one of the country’s primary concerns which will affect immigration laws and social views on immigrants. After the attack, Merz spoke of the need for deportations and issued a warning on “Political Islam” that he believes, “is one of the main motives for the crimes committed in Germany.” Notably, Germany’s policy on migration will have a wider continental impact. Given the nation’s leading role in the EU, the CDU/CSU’s concern for Germany’s border laws is likely to impact debates on immigration at an EU-level as well.
THE DEBT BRAKE
Another issue shaping the elections is Germany’s debt brake, which was a central cause of the previous government’s fall. The debt brake, or Schuldenbremse, refers to the German Constitution’s Article 109 which restricts the government’s ability to take loans. There is leeway within the law for the federal government to borrow at no more than 0.35% of its nominal GDP except during emergency and natural catastrophes. The previous coalition was divided over the debt brake whereby Scholz put forward the option to proclaim an emergency to bypass the rule. Lindner opposed this and proposed new economic policies, eventually leading to his sacking by Scholz. Ultimately, amidst the struggles over the budget, Germany’s economy experienced further market fall and overall stagnant growth.
It is clear that Merz is using Scholz’s cabinet’s economic failure as a tool to advance his chances of winning the elections, stating that the SPD humiliated Germany and that Robert Habeck, the Economic and Climate Minister and the Greens’ candidate for Chancellor, is “the face of Germany’s economic crisis.” The debt brake is a divisive factor that differentiates the right, including the FDP, from left-wing parties. The CDU/CSU’s Merz, given his economically-oriented perspective, is opposed to softening the debt brake before the snap elections but is open to discussing the matter after. The SPD and Greens, unchanging in their stance, continue to call for the reformation of the debt brake despite its role in bringing about the fall of the coalition.
FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE EAST
Irrespective of the new government’s make-up, Germany can be expected to take a harsher foreign policy stance on the Middle East as it pertains to bilateral relations and conflicts. In regard to the situations in Gaza and Lebanon, Germany has taken a firm position in support of Israel due to its “responsibility deriving from the Holocaust [that] makes it [their] permanent duty to stand up for the existence and security of the State of Israel.” During the multiple regional crises, the German government took Israel’s side, tried to protect itself from accusations of being anti-Israel, and instrumentalized the situation in national political debates. For example, in an effort to portray Scholz as betraying German solidarity with Israel during the traffic-light coalition’s tenure, Merz accused the ruling coalition of delaying licenses for arms exports for their ally. This was met by opposition from Scholz who stated that: “We have supplied weapons and we will supply weapons” to Israel.
Germany is struggling on account of its regional reputation as it attempts to balance its obligation not to be complicit in violating international law, while simultaneously standing firmly by its ally. Germany’s police force has also been criticized for its aggressive response against pro-Palestinian protestors. The influence of popular German politicians, like Weidel, who have accused the protestors of posing a danger to Jewish communities, has further polarized the debates.
On Syria, Germany’s approach will continue to be shaped by its refugee and asylum policies. Since 2015, Germany has taken in around a million Syrians fleeing from civil war, over 700,000 of which remain refugees or asylum seekers. However, after Bashar al-Assad’s fall in December 2024, Germany almost immediately froze Syrian asylum applications and debates reignited on their future in Germany. The right-wing has called for Syrians to return to their home country, with the CDU/CSU suggesting providing monetary incentives for Syrians to encourage their return.
Following on the AfD’s “remigration” policy that calls for migrants to return to their home countries, in a recent post on X, Weidel stated: “Anyone in Germany who celebrates a ‘free Syria’ evidently no longer has any reason to flee. They should return to Syria immediately.” Notably, a significant portion (68%) of the public agree that the nation should welcome fewer refugees. However, the implications of Syrians leaving Germany will not be small, affecting Germany’s healthcare and economic sectors. There is no doubt that Syrian refugees have contributed significantly to the German economy through ready consumption, entrepreneurship, and crucial labor that will be left vacant. Considering Germany’s current economic struggles, this matter will need to be addressed appropriately by the incoming government. In terms of its engagement with the new authorities in Syria, Annalena Baerbock, the German Foreign Minister, met with Syria’s Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa and announced the provision of $51.3 million in humanitarian aid to Syria as a way to support both Europe and Syria’s stability.
TRUMP & NATO
Lastly, the re-election of US President Trump will continue to have implications for European security, and Germany is no exception. As a hot topic in the elections, significant German politicians have taken different approaches to foreign policy towards Trump. Merz aims to keep Germany in good relations with Trump to uphold trade deals and the economy, while calling on the EU to “conduct good negotiations […] in a spirit of great unity.” Opposingly, Scholz has criticized Trump’s expansionist positioning as a potential threat to the norm of territorial integrity. Nevertheless, both Merz and Scholz disapprove of Trump’s adoption of tariffs, with Merz claiming they are inefficient in helping trade policy or US consumers, and Scholz highlighting the EU’s ability to take counter-measures against US tariffs, if implemented.
The future of German-US relations has also been linked to the future of NATO. Trump’s dissatisfaction with NATO has been no secret ever since his first presidential term in 2017. He has threatened to pull the US out of the alliance if member states do not pay their “bills,” referring to the guideline of 2% of GDP to be spent on defense. Trump’s claims have not fallen on deaf ears as NATO’s own Secretary General, Mark Rutte, has warned of the potential need to increase member states’ spending target from 2% to an estimated 3.7% of their GDP. According to Rutte, it is time for Europe to “shift to a wartime mindset” wherein Trump “was right and is still right.” The future of NATO is important for Germany as it acts as a crucial organization for German military, political, and economic security. As such, Germany has reached the 2% spending target in the past year and aims to invest more.
Despite the US’ spending of 3.38% of its GDP on NATO, Trump’s recent call for NATO countries to allocate 5% of their GDP to defense spending has also laid significant pressure on Germany. Trump’s statement was met by dismay from some European countries and politicians, claiming the demand is unrealistic given the possible negative economic implications. In terms of Germany, Merz dismissed Trump’s defense target demands as insignificant and said that “the decisive factor is that we do what is necessary to defend ourselves.” Additionally, Boris Pistorius, Germany’s Defense Minister, stated that Trump’s 5% demand is impractical as it “would equal 42 percent of the federal budget.” Meanwhile, the AfD’s co-leader Tino Chrupalla, being pro-Russian, has called for Germany to re-evaluate its NATO membership. He claimed that the organization is being run according to “America’s interests.”
Overall, the upcoming German elections will be an opportunity for the country to re-strengthen itself amidst its national state of crisis. The future of German foreign policy and defense strategies will be reflected in the future government’s attitude towards the Middle East and Trump, beyond its ongoing support for Israel.
The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author, and do not represent Fiker Institute.
