Rethinking Water Security In Arab States
Introduction
Water security has become a central point of discussion in recent years, particularly for countries in the Arab world, due to the severe impacts of climate change being felt across the region. Having experienced continuous droughts since the 1990s, and a striking increase in temperatures,1 twelve out of the seventeen most water-stressed countries in the world are situated in West Asia and North Africa.2 Water scarcity now tops the list of environmental issues that can severely hinder the region’s development and growth trajectory in the near term. The situation is further exacerbated by increases in population growth, rapid urbanization, and the growing demand for water to support agricultural, industrial, and domestic use.
Despite the severity of the situation, the lack of robust collaboration among governments that are intensely impacted has led to weak regionwide policies that inadequately address water scarcity. The current environmental landscape calls for tangible coordinated action and innovative solutions to ensure the sustainable management of water resources in the region. Without significant policy interventions, climate realities are set to endanger over 80 million individuals by 2025, resulting in absolute water scarcity.3 This means that natural water sources will become unavailable, despite the adoption of all feasible measures.4 Given the urgency of the situation, water scarcity should be at the forefront of the collective Arab development agenda, both in terms of the priorities set forth by the League of Arab States and the Gulf Coordination Council (GCC), as well as bilateral initiatives between Arab states.
Background
Broadly defined, water security is the capacity of a population to safeguard access to water in order to sustain livelihoods, preserve human well-being, and support socioeconomic development, to maintain peace and political stability within communities.5 A key obstacle in this regard is water scarcity, which is the lack of resources to meet water demands in any given setting.6 An illustrative case of water insecurity in the region is that of Iraq, a country with a population of 43.5 million.7 In 2022, the United Nations placed Iraq as one of the top five countries impacted by climate change.8 This comes after the Iraqi Minister of Water Resources, Mahdi Rashid Al-Hamdani, warned that the loss of water in the rivers of Tigris and Euphrates, caused by the lack of significant rainfall, prolonged heat waves, and dust storms, could turn them into dry land by 2040.9 In order to mitigate this possibility, the Iraqi Government announced last year that it will cut national agricultural activities by half, as they heavily depend on water from the two rivers. The decision comes despite the fact that around 18% of the Iraqi population is currently employed in farming, which illustrates the urgency of the water threat.10 The country’s agricultural sector has endured decades of deterioration due to conflict, lack of investment, and increasing global temperatures.11 Today, more than 7 million Iraqi citizens lack access to drinking water, pointing to the growing humanitarian crisis in the country.12
Another relevant case is that of Egypt. The country is experiencing a sharp increase in population growth, which is expected to yield a 10.37% upturn by 2027, equivalent to 10.8 million people.13 Agriculture is a key sector in the country, employing an estimated 55% of the Egyptian population.14 However, as the population grows, there is a corresponding rise in the demand for agricultural produce, which, in turn, requires an increased amount of water. This dynamic has been highlighted as a priority policy area by numerous stakeholders, including the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The organization voiced concerns about the worsening water crisis and the mismanagement of water resources in the agricultural sector, which will continue to threaten food security in the region.15 To keep up with the production of food, groundwater sources have been overly used for many years to the point of collapse. In addition, agricultural practices have mainly been linked to inefficient methods of irrigation, with most water being lost to evaporation in the region.16 Accordingly, at COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh last November, a key focus of the Egyptian Presidency was on water-related issues, and coordinating parties were urged to ensure equitable access to water across various geographies.17
Within the context of the Arabian Gulf, several countries have also sounded the alarm on water scarcity. While studies on this issue are few and far in between, researchers have nonetheless found alarming evidence of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a team of experts from the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, the National Water and Energy Center, and UAE-based universities measured that at the Quaternary Aquifer, one of the main water reserves in the country that is situated to the east of Jabal Hafit in Al-Ain, groundwater has decreased from 238 trillion liters in 1969 to 10 trillion liters in 2015.18 With a growing population and very limited rainfall, groundwater has dropped by around one meter per year over the last 30 years.19 The study’s findings hold true for other areas of the Gulf as well, especially as the region is prone to severe water shortages. It is estimated that the water needs of Arab Gulf states will reach 33,733 cubic meters per year by 2050, while the region’s projected future storage is only 25,855 cubic meters.20 Accordingly, the GCC needs to boost its water supply by 77% to meet the needs of its growing population in the coming 30 years.21
In order to proactively address these challenges, the UAE launched a hydrogeological map project in February 2022, which aims to create an accurate database and a series of digitized maps of the groundwater reservoirs and surface water basins across the country.22 The outcome of this project will result in draft policies for utilizing and preserving ground and surface water resources. It will also aid in determining groundwater capacities, levels, and quantities.23 Other nations in the region have put in place similar initiatives as well. In 2019, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Environment, Water, and Agriculture launched a national program called “Qatrah,” Arabic for “droplet,” to reduce water consumption by 43% by 2030.24 The Qatrah initiative is meant to encourage behavioral change in the Saudi society by raising awareness on water scarcity. This is in line with the government’s plan to increase the regulation of water in the agricultural sector, which consumes the highest percentage of water in the country.25
Discussion
As trends in the region demonstrate, water scarcity, combined with massive population growth and urbanization, is one of the most pressing environmental issues in the Arab world. With its availability decreasing, water is increasingly becoming an additional source of dispute. One reason is that most countries in the region share at least one water reservoir with their neighboring countries. The Euphrates-Tigris river, for instance, crosses through the territories of Iraq, Turkey, and Syria.26 Despite shared resources, effective transboundary water management is difficult to attain, as collaborative approaches interact with different governmental priorities across countries. This has led to an estimated 82% of the water in the Middle East not being recycled, which highlights the lack of cooperation between neighboring countries as a core reason for water scarcity.27 Water is now also seen as a source of political influence, which is not only related to environmental concerns and food security but also plays a key part in regional security arrangements. Water may be deemed a competitive asset in the near future, given its increasing importance as a constraining factor for the advancement of nation-states.
Water scarcity in the region has been exacerbated by the installation of motorized water pumps since the 1970s. Since then, the pumps have led to the overuse and depletion of water resources, as well as to saltwater intrusion and environmental damage, all of which negatively impact groundwater reserves and availability.28 These effects have been compounded by short-term solutions such as water trucking, a temporary intervention used to cover interruptions in water services or provide access to sufficient water for meeting survival requirements. It has primarily been utilized in countries that are experiencing unexpected population growth or sudden onset sociopolitical shocks.29 Lebanon is a good example of this. Instead of implementing potential long-term solutions, the country has sought the use of ad-hoc water resources such as trucking.30 Even though water trucking is a quick and reliable method in emergency settings, it is only a temporary fix, and it ultimately worsens groundwater depletion.
The growing demands for the limited water supplies, coupled with development challenges, particularly in a post-COVID-19 context, have primed the region as highly prone to absolute water scarcity within the coming 30 years.31 To meet water demands, many countries in the region rely on desalination plants, with Saudi Arabia being the largest producer of desalinated water.32 In order to create fresh water, fit for irrigation or human use, saltwater is cleared of salt and other minerals using desalination technology,33 through which Saudi Arabia now receives more than half of its water.34
Reiterating the importance of desalination projects, the Arab Water Council, held in February 2023 under the patronage of the League of Arab States, discussed the technology’s key role in the social and economic development of the Gulf. Innovative technological solutions can help increase water productivity in order to fulfill the growing demand for water, while also enhancing existing sources by minimizing pollution.35 It is important to note that, despite the seemingly widespread use of desalination, some countries across the broader region lack the means and finances to operate and maintain such solutions to advance water security. Syria is one example, where only about 50% of the country’s water and sanitation infrastructure is utilized due to prolonged conflict and the ongoing drought.36 The interruption of know-how transmission that has resulted from civil instability has also led to the improper maintenance of water systems.37 According to the World Resources Institute, absolute water scarcity was expected by 2050 for Syria, but given the rapid changes in climate and the consequences of conflict, the projection has now been revised to 2040.38
The scarcity of water can be a source of growing contention, as indicated by current regional trends and trajectories. The situation throughout the region may become more concerning in the next few years, as national water projects start to impact water supplies in bordering countries.
Recommendations
While a number of Arab countries rely on seawater desalination to cope with the water crisis in the absence of alternative solutions, the policy implications of this approach necessitate forward-looking action. To begin with, the desalination process is costly. Although when used for tourism or industry purposes, the costs may seem tolerable, desalination of water for farming and irrigation, which consume over 85% of water resources in the region, is not an economically sustainable solution for all countries.39 It is important to account for developing countries and encourage financial institutions, the private sector, and civil society to engage in fostering context-relevant solutions, as well as climate-oriented and coordinated dialogue on the creation of regional water funds for the installation of such projects. These targeted funds can be mapped out by engaging with and including expertise from the League of Arab States, the private sector, and relevant academic institutions to assess needs and costs more accurately. The demands of individual states should be better matched, and integrated into, collective efforts on this file, to better enable the implementation of effective tailored solutions.
Adding to that, scaling up desalination efforts across the entire region will need to be coupled with environment-friendly practices and guidelines, especially as it relates to marine life. The process itself, even in its simplest forms, requires significant energy. A range of stakeholders have proposed strategies to mitigate the negative side effects of desalination processes, and the expansion of these discussions should be both encouraged and prioritized. One example is the Abu Dhabi-based start-up Manhat, founded in 2019, which developed a new technology solution, based on sunlight, that distills water without requiring electricity. The floating device separates water from salt crystals, and as temperatures cool, the water condenses into freshwater. The wastewater generated from this could be reused for agricultural irrigation.40 Through encouraging the advancement of water-focused startups, countries in the Arab world can benefit from increased investments in climate technology and innovation. Hence, targeting both the financial and technical aspects of desalination should be a top priority when addressing this challenge.
Increasing water reuse should become an essential policy priority, as emphasized in the recent meeting of the Arab Water Council in February.41 Wastewater can be treated and reused for irrigation, industrial use, and other non-portable purposes while reducing the demand for freshwater resources and improving the quality of water sources at the same time.42 There are several ways to increase water reuse, including implementing wastewater treatment systems, promoting irrigation, encouraging the use of treated wastewater in industry, developing regulations and guidelines for water reuse, and increasing public awareness and acceptance of water reuse programs.43 However, these will require investment in wastewater treatment infrastructure, policy, and regulatory frameworks, public awareness and education programs aimed at cultivating behavioral changes on a mass scale, and wider support in the region.
Direct governmental coordination and regional agreements should be at the forefront of this process. Drawing on the above, mitigating water scarcity can only be achieved through promoting and investing in better regional collaboration mechanisms. It is important to ensure the sustainable use and management of the region’s water resources, which are often transboundary in character. This can be done through the creation of water-focused joint projects, as well as the seamless and real-time sharing of information and data across governmental institutions in the region, both of which will be beneficial for alleviating and minimizing prospects of severe water scarcity.
Conclusion
Due to its increasingly limited availability, water can be viewed as a competitive resource in and across countries in the region, which risks hindering the development of collective policies and effective harmonization. It is important to emphasize the urgency of the implementation of practical strategies to mitigate additional food insecurities, deserted territories, poverty, and climate migration in the short and medium term.
One crucial takeaway from this discussion is that achieving water security requires the parallel advancement of technology, institutional management, and an integrated water resources management approach. Relying solely on desalination to solve the issue of water scarcity has made little progress due to limited water resources in conflict-prone areas of the region. Therefore, the focus of policy planning should shift towards more long-term sustainable solutions.
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The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author, and do not represent Fiker Institute.
