2024 European Parliament Elections
What is happening?
In June 2024, European citizens across the continent will participate in the world’s largest transnational elections to vote for the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs).1 Just two decades ago, a far-right party winning national elections in Europe was an implausible idea. Today, far-right governments have assumed power in several European states, and with the European Union (EU) preparing to vote for a new European Parliament, a far-right-inclined Brussels may be taking shape. This potential drift will be mirrored in important policies such as migration, climate action, women’s rights, and defense. Since the last time European citizens went to the polls to elect their MEPs, Europe has witnessed multiple crises unfold, often at the same time. The COVID-19 pandemic, lockdowns, economic recovery, climate change, irregular migration, and the prolonged war in Ukraine, have all contributed to fueling far-right narratives that have attempted to position their movements as alternatives to an ailing status quo. While far-right movements have always existed across Europe, voters have been more tolerant and open to their policy proposals,2 adding to that the gradual disappearance of the “cordon sanitaire,” or the line separating the center-right and the far-right parties.3
Right-wing governments have also gained exceptional popularity in the past few years. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her Fratelli d’Italia Party, Italy’s most right-wing party since World War Two, assumed power in 2022.4 Finland’s Petteri Orpo was next. As the leader of the conservative National Coalition Party, he became the Prime Minister of Finland, and is now heading the most right-wing government that has ever come to power in the country.5 Securing another term, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, leader of Greece’s center-right, won the national elections in June 2023.6 In Spain, the local elections in May 2022 resulted in right-wing wins in most regions,7 and recent polls reveal that if the elections were held in December 2023, the center-right group would have won the absolute majority in the government.8 Last November, Geert Wilders’s far-right party gained a significant number of seats in the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, a win that would potentially lead to him securing the premiership of the country, alarming mainstream parties ahead of the EU parliament elections.9 In some countries, traditional center-right groups are also forming alliances with far-right parties. In 2022, three right-wing parties in Sweden were backed by the far-right Sweden Democrats to form a government, a move seen then as unprecedented.10
Even in contexts where the far-right have not yet led governments, they still seem to gain significant traction. In Germany, for instance, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party, outpolls the Social Democrats for the next national elections scheduled to occur in 2025.11 In Austria, advances are also anticipated for the far-right, possibly to include becoming the largest party and moving into government following the September 2024 elections.12 Similarly, Portugal’s upcoming snap election in March 2024 looks like it will pave the way for a right-wing coalition, backed by a far-right party to form the next government.13 French politician Marine Le Pen and her far-right National Rally party also stand as a stark example in France. Around half of French citizens believe that Le Pen can bring about changes in the country, and consider her as a serious contender for president.14 This seemingly collective shift towards the far-right in national elections will not only impact domestic political landscapes, but will also influence the outcome of the European elections as a whole.
In light of the interconnectedness between the national and the larger inter-European landscape, this year’s European Parliament elections will be an important moment in the political trajectory of Europe, playing a crucial role in positioning the bloc on the world stage for years to come, and at least until 2029. So, what can we expect from the 2024 European Parliament elections?
Why is it happening?
Every five years and for more than four decades, European citizens, 400 million of whom are eligible to vote,15 head to the polls to elect their representatives in the European Parliament.16 This democratic election is considered the world’s second-largest after India’s parliament.17 With its tenth edition this year, the European elections, as a process, has witnessed notable structural changes. Some countries have gained between one to five additional seats, while the voting age has been decreased in others to encourage the wider participation of youth. The election of the President of the EU Commission also looms over this discussion, as some EU parties have started to name their lead candidates for the position.
Seat allocation in the European parliament is based on the “degressive proportionality” principle, meaning that “the greater the population of a Member State, the greater number of MEPs it will have — however, each MEP in a larger Member State then represents proportionately more citizens than would be the case in a smaller Member State.”18 As such, each European citizen will directly elect a specific number of MEPs allocated to his or her country,19 starting from a minimum of six members such as in Cyprus, Luxembourg, and Malta, to a maximum of 96, as in Germany.20 This year, a total of 720 MEPs will be elected.21 This figure was reached after two consecutive increases in seats. The first occurred following Brexit in 2019, leading to the redistribution of Britain’s 73 seats.22 Among those, 27 were allocated to other countries with France and Spain each having five additional MEPs, Italy and the Netherlands each having three MEPs, Ireland two additional MEPs, and Sweden, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Slovakia, Croatia, Estonia, Poland, and Romania each having one additional MEP.23 The remaining 46 seats were reserved for future expansions, making the total number of MEPs after Brexit 705.24 The second increase in seats followed a 2023 decision by the EU Council to expand the number of MEPs. France, Spain, and the Netherlands each now have two additional MEPs, and Austria, Denmark, Belgium, Poland, Finland, Slovakia, Ireland, Slovenia, and Latvia each have one additional MEP.25
These members of parliament are directly elected by the citizens according to a voting system chosen by their countries. In other words, there is no unified voting system in these elections. However, few restrictions apply. Elections should be based on proportional representation, adopting the list system, which is either open or closed, or the single transferable vote, and guaranteeing a secret and free ballot.26 Countries then have the freedom to authorize a preferential list system, establish constituencies, subdivide their electoral area, and set a minimum threshold for the allocation of seats as long as it does not exceed 5 percent in votes cast.27 As for the voting age, the majority of European countries have it fixed at 18. However, national laws adopted in Belgium, Austria, Germany, and Malta have lowered the voting age to 16, and similarly to 17 in Greece.28
Once MEPs are elected, they join European parties that have a number of national parties under their umbrellas, primarily united through the same political ideologies rather than nationalities. For instance, the French National Rally party and the German AfD both belong to the same europarty called Identity and Democracy.29 Currently, seven political groups are represented in the European Parliament: the European People’s Party (EPP) also known as the Christian Democrats and the largest and oldest political party in the parliament,30 the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), both center-right, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), center-left, Renew Europe (RE), centrist, the Greens/European Free Alliance, center-left to left, Identity and Democracy Group (ID), far-right, and The Left in the European Parliament – GUE/NGL.31 Members cannot belong to more than one party, but they can choose not to belong to any. These are known as “non-attached members,” or “non-inscrits.”32 Currently, the EU parliament has 50 non-attached members.33
What is being done about it?
Despite the elections being for the EU parliament, it is the national parties in each country that contest it.34 These parties help mobilize voters and advance their policy agendas while demonstrating how their presence in the European Parliament can serve the interests of their countries in the context of a larger European Union. As such, to win seats in the European Parliament, candidates in national party lists address both domestic and EU-wide topics throughout their campaigns. Nevertheless, EU parties also draft their “Euromanifestos,” or European electoral programs,35 and form alliances to help member parties in each country win.
Previously, the process of drafting electoral programs was made internally by the EU parties, which makes it difficult for civil society to be properly informed and engaged ahead of the elections.36 In response to this, during this election cycle, some EU parties have decided to engage in crowdsourcing initiatives through in-person and online consultations with citizens and NGOs to help them prioritize their manifestos.37 The RE party conducted a series of talks and meetings in places like Portugal, Denmark, Lithuania, and Rome, as well as launched an online portal for citizens to share their policy preferences.38 Likewise, the EPP created an online portal,39 allowing people to weigh in on ideas and priorities. These proposals will be taken into consideration when drafting the party’s manifesto that will be announced during its Congress in March in Bucharest.40 This gathering will be hosted by the EPP member party in Romania, the National Liberal Party.41 This is a clear example of how national and EU-wide parties collaborate ahead of the European elections. In a similar vein, the Greens concluded an online public consultation,42 and an in-person Electoral Congress in June 2023, in Vienna, as well as an online Electoral Congress in December of the same year, and are preparing for a second one in-person in France beginning in February 2024.43 It is notable that both the ECR and ID have not yet opened their manifestos to the public.44
Alongside these initiatives, all parties have already revealed the key elements in their campaigns that differentiate them from each other. Last December, far-right parties across the continent met in Italy to launch their campaign for the EU parliament elections.45 The parties, hosted by the ID group, discussed Europe’s most pressing challenges including climate change, the war in Ukraine, and illegal migration, as well as strongly disapproved of the proposal to prohibit CO2-emitting cars by 2035.46 The ID group adopted the “Florence Manifesto for the Peoples and Nations” as their election program that aims to work towards solidifying the member countries’ sovereignty in the EU decision-making process. The Manifesto also criticizes the green agenda for shoring up prices and negatively affecting industries across the continent, in addition to the lack of transparency in EU institutions, among others.47 Heading the summit, Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister, Matteo Salvini, stated that right-wing parties have to unite to “free Brussels” from those who “illegally” occupy it.48 He also called on the center-right to collaborate with the ID group.49 In an interview, the President of the ID group at the European Parliament, Marco Zanni, specifically highlighted how the ID is the only party that is challenging the “there is no alternative” rhetoric, or what he calls TINA. This means that the ID wants to change the perception that there is no alternative to increasing European integration and to giving more power to the EU.50 He also stressed the need to understand that states should work together to add value and cannot “do everything together.” “We are not a state, we are not a confederation, we are not a federation, but we are a sui generis [unique] institution that is based on member states and national states,” he ended.51
The EPP is flexing its muscles as the largest party in the European Parliament and a “reasonable dealmaker.”52 It is basing its strategy for the upcoming elections on what it has achieved so far, especially during the pandemic, and its success in “keeping Europe together” amidst the war in Ukraine.53 The EPP is also increasingly labeling itself as the farmers’ party, and working towards economic growth across Europe. In an interview, EPP President, Manfred Weber, said that his party will deliver a reasonable, center-right, pro-European approach in the next five years, with the rule of law above all.54 Notably, there seems to be a rapprochement between the EPP and the far-right.55 Weber himself met for the second time in less than two months with Prime Minister Meloni, leader of the ECR, in Rome, as the two are working on an alliance before the EU elections.56
The ECR is aiming for an “Italian model,” which means a dominant right, that some see as “effective” and delivers results in economic terms.57 It also wants to go back to addressing the challenges that originally concerned the EU, such as border protection, freedom of the market, and scientific and health research, veering away from policies that reduce member states to administrative entities.58 The ECR is also going to push for a more moderated approach towards what it calls “environmental extremism” that is currently present in the European Union. The Co-President of the ECR group at the European Parliament, Nicola Procaccini, said in an interview that they will not let “environmentalism become a surrogate for the socialism defeated in the last century.”59
On the other hand, The Left wants to play a bigger role in the EU to counter a potential alliance between the right and the far-right to rebalance the parliament. It is working on a closer alliance with the Greens and the Socialists while pressuring the RE to pick sides.60 In an interview, the Co-Chair of The Left group at the European Parliament, Manon Aubry, said that the days of “backdoor agreements” between the EPP and the S&D are over, and that The Left will keep working on making the EU closer to the people.61 When asked about what differentiates them from other parties in the parliament, she answered by highlighting the impact that the party is currently making, linking inequality with the climate crisis, and emphasizing the need for the “richest, the wealthiest, and the biggest multinationals” to assume full responsibility in climate action.62
For the S&D, economic governance is an important element in their campaign with a specific focus on the technological and ecological transition that is also “socially sustainable.”63 S&D will also prioritize the defense of the rule of law and the protection of minorities, as well as supporting Ukraine, with an overall pro-European stance.64 In an interview, S&D President, Iratxe García Pérez, clearly stated that the S&D will never negotiate with “those who seek to destroy the European project.” By this, she is indirectly referring to the ID, the party she didn’t mention when talking about who S&D have, and will, negotiate with; namely the conservatives, liberals, greens, and left-wing forces.65
Climate change is naturally the top policy priority on the Greens’ agenda, which focuses on creating an ambitious plan towards climate neutrality for Europe. In addition, they plan on working towards advancing social justice and narrowing the divide between “the rich and the poor.”66 The Greens believe that the EU should have a bigger role in creating better working conditions and wages for its citizens, and in defending democracy and freedom, which they argue are now “under attack” across Europe and the international community more broadly.67
RE is keeping its position between the right and the left, emerging as a “pro-European, liberal, progressive, and democratic” party, that focuses on democracy, reindustrialization, rule of law, and climate policies.68 The party will focus on the European reindustrialization process, and creating more jobs in the green industry, as well as ensuring the implementation of the Green Deal and the climate guidelines that they voted in favor of. In an interview, the President of RE, Stéphane Séjourné, said that his party will bring to the forefront what he calls European “values”, implying their current absence. He also later stated that the party would not work with a far-right alliance after the elections.69
What’s next?
Following the elections in June, MEPs will have the responsibility to elect the EU’s top executive role, which is the President of the EU Commission. Currently filled by the former German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen, the process of the election of this seat is being discussed among European politicians. For the last two terms, the spitzenkandidaten system, or the lead candidate process, was adopted.70 It refers to the process by which European parties select a lead candidate before the elections, and the party that gets the most seats will expect their candidate to be elected as the president.71 However, the process was unsuccessful with the appointment of von der Leyen. She was chosen as president in what some labeled as “a backroom deal.”72 In anticipation of the upcoming elections, on December 12, 2023, MEPs voted on a report insisting that the election of the Commission President must be credibly linked to the voters’ decision, ensured through a binding agreement between the Parliament and the European Council.73 In addition to the President of the EU Commission, MEPs also have to elect the President of the Parliament, fourteen Vice-Presidents, and five Quaestors.74 All these elected officials will then have to decide on energy and climate policy, security and defense, trade disputes, tax regulation, and workers’ rights, as well as further EU expansion.75
According to POLITICO’s latest study, the ID group is expected to reach 91 seats, while the ECR is set to secure 78.76 There have been speculations about the possibility of ID and ECR uniting, which could garner enough support to mirror the size of the largest group in the parliament, the EPP, leading to a result of 23 percent of the seats.77 Regardless of the likelihood of this happening, this union could shift the overall tone of the parliament. The more probable alliance is between the EPP and ECR leading to 33 percent of the seats.78 All of this threatens a previous informal traditional alliance between the EPP, RE, and S&D.
If these dynamics were to materialize in the June elections, results with around a fifth of the parliament leaning toward supporting the far-right would create a significant shift in inter-European policy discourse. First, Europe’s support for Ukraine could face severe policy hurdles, further complicating the country’s potential accession to the bloc. Right-wing populist politicians like Viktor Orbán are already threatening to obstruct the start of membership negotiations with Ukraine,79 and previously blocked aid for the country.80 When it comes to climate policy, right-wing opposition is growing stronger and has already diluted the Green Deal, particularly when it comes to issues related to agriculture and deforestation that are part of the larger sustainability agenda, including ongoing debates surrounding opposing positions on energy sources, particularly when it comes to nuclear energy. Far-right MEPs will most likely prioritize initiatives through the lens of industrial policy and technical innovation rather than through environmental considerations.81 Concerning immigration, less work could be expected on developing long-term legislative solutions, as all right-wing parties in Europe concur that they oppose undocumented immigrants and asylum seekers.82
Nevertheless, the RE party could still rebalance the EU parliament and preserve its progressive policy agenda that it established five years ago. If RE commits to not working with the far-right, it could form a coalition with S&D, The Left, and the Greens, securing 297 seats in total. Compared to the 340 seats that the right and the far-right have,83 and keeping in mind that these parties will not agree on all issues due to their ideological differences, various scenarios within the European parliament can continue to unfold.
As the election date approaches, more alliances could be formed, and candidates will strive to prove their qualifications by aligning themselves with the most pressing issues facing Europe as a bloc. The public will closely observe these candidates as they engage in party conferences, town hall meetings, and civil society engagements, making the upcoming months crucial in shaping seemingly conflicting European positions in the ballots.
To access the works cited & endnotes, download the full report.
The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author, and do not represent Fiker Institute.
